Housing Affordability Rises to Highest Level in Four Years

Housing affordability rises to highest level in four years

WASHINGTON – Nov. 19, 2008 – With home prices decreasing and interest rates holding at historically low levels, the number of potential homebuyers nationwide who can afford to buy new and existing homes has reached the highest level in more than four years, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI).

According to the third-quarter HOI readings, 56.1 percent of all new and existing homes sold were affordable to families earning the national median income of $61,500 – far more than the 40.4 percent of families who could afford homes at the peak of the housing boom.

“If there is a silver lining to this crisis, it would be that some housing markets have become more affordable with a larger inventory to choose from,” said NAHB Chairman Sandy Dunn. “But this is undeniably a crisis and Congress needs to act on housing stimulus to get the market moving again.”

The two most affordable major housing markets in the country during the third quarter of the year were Indianapolis, Ind., and Youngstown, Ohio, according to the HOI. In both Indianapolis and Youngstown, 91.0 percent of homes sold in the third quarter were affordable to families earning the areas’ median household incomes of $65,100 and $52,000, respectively.

Also near the top of the list for affordable major metropolitan areas were Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich.; Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, Mich.; and Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, Mich., in that order.

One smaller metro market (fewer than 500,000 people) outranked all others in terms of housing affordability during the third quarter of 2008 – Springfield, Ohio, where 92.9 percent of all homes sold in the period were affordable to families earning that area’s median household income of $54,500.

New York-White Plains-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J., was the nation’s least affordable major housing market for the second consecutive quarter. In the New York market, 10.6 percent of the new and existing homes sold during the third quarter were affordable to those earning the area’s median family income of $63,000.

Other major metro areas at the bottom of the housing affordability chart included San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, Calif.; Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y.; Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif.; and Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla., in that order.

Among smaller metro areas, the other markets at the bottom of the affordability chart were San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, Calif.; Santa Cruz-Watsonville, Calif.; Napa, Calif.; and Bend, Ore., respectively.

Courtesy FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® © 2008: http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n1-111908.cfm

Florida’s Existing Home, Condo Sales Increase in September 2008

Florida’s existing home, condo sales increase in September 2008

ORLANDO, Fla., Oct. 24, 2008 – For the first time in almost three years, Florida’s existing home sales rose in September, noting a 24 percent increase in activity in the year-to-year comparison; last month’s sales of existing condos statewide increased 11 percent in the year-to-year comparison, according to the latest housing data released by the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR).

A total of 10,817 existing homes sold statewide last month, up 24 percent over the 8,725 homes sold in September 2007, according to FAR. The last time Florida Realtors reported higher statewide existing single-family home sales was for year-end 2005, FAR records found. In July of this year, six more homes sold statewide than in July 2007, but that increase was statistically insignificant.

Fourteen of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased sales of existing homes in September; nine MSAs also showed gains in condo sales, marking the third month in a row that a number of markets have noted higher sales activity.

“The September sales report from the Florida Association of Realtors shows a 24 percent increase in the sales of existing homes in the state; this represents the sixth month in a row that the sales figure has exceeded its 12-month moving average (average of the previous 12 months),” says Dr. Sean Snaith, economist and director of the University of Central Florida Institute for Economic Competitiveness. “This is a clear sign that the significant price declines that have occurred across the state are leading to a more rapid absorption of the housing inventory.”

Snaith noted that September 2007 was a volatile time for the housing industry. “The large percentage increase of sales this September versus September 2007 is inflated by the sharp decline in sales that took place in September 2007,” he explained. “That was the month following the initial wave of global fallout precipitated by the subprime mortgage meltdown that roiled markets in August 2007.”

Florida’s median sales price for existing homes last month was $175,100; a year ago, it was $224,700 for a 22 percent decrease. But, looking back to September 2003, the statewide median sales price for single-family homes was $158,800 – an increase of 10.3 percent over the five-year-period, according to FAR records. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in August 2008 was $201,900, down 9.7 percent from a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). In California, the statewide median resales price was $350,140 in August; in Massachusetts, it was $325,000; in Maryland, it was $295,283; and in New York, it was $225,000.

The latest housing outlook from NAR points out the importance of available credit to the mortgage market. “Home sales will be constrained without a freer flow of credit into the mortgage market,” says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “The faster that happens, the sooner we’ll see a broad stabilization in home prices that in turn will help the economy recover.”

In Florida’s year-to-year comparison for condos, 2,878 units sold statewide compared to 2,595 sold in September 2007 for an 11 percent increase. The statewide existing condo median sales price last month was $153,800; in September 2007 it was $197,000 for a 22 percent decrease. In the latest data available at press time, NAR reported the national median existing condo price was $212,600 in August 2008.

Last month, interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.04 percent, down from the average rate of 6.38 percent in September 2007, according to Freddie Mac. FAR’s sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.

Among the state’s large to medium-size markets, the Daytona Beach MSA reported a total of 536 homes sold in September compared to 478 homes a year ago for a 12 percent increase. The existing home median sales price was $160,000; a year ago, it was $193,200 for a 17 percent decrease. In the year-to-year comparison for the existing condo market, a total of 74 units sold in the MSA last month, up 1 percent compared to 73 condos sold the previous September. The market’s existing condo median price was $237,500; a year ago, it was $277,100 for a 14 percent decrease.

Courtesy FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS © 2008:http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n1-102408.cfm

Pending Homes Sales Up Strongly

Pending Home Sales Up Strongly

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Pending home sales activity surged as buyers took advantage of low home prices and affordable interest rates, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in August, jumped 7.4 percent to 93.4 from an upwardly revised reading of 87.0 in July, and is 8.8 percent higher than August 2007 when it stood at 85.8. The index is at the highest level since June 2007 when it stood at 101.4.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home buyers were responding to improved affordability. “What we’re seeing is the momentum of people taking advantage of low home prices, with pending home sales up strongly in California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Rhode Island and the Washington, D.C., region,” he said. "It’s unclear how much contract activity may be impacted by the credit disruptions on Wall Street, but we’re hopeful most of the increase will translate into closed existing-home sales.”

The PHSI in the West surged 18.4 percent to 109.5 in August and remains 37.8 percent above a year ago. In the Northeast the index jumped 8.4 percent to 79.8 and is 2.0 percent higher than August 2007. The index in the Midwest rose 3.6 percent to 84.5 in August and is 6.6 percent above a year ago. In the South, the index increased 2.3 percent to 96.0 but is 2.1 percent below August 2007.

Yun notes the unusual timing of contract activity in August. “Home buyers in July were hampered by overly stringent lending criteria in the months before the government takeover of Fannie and Freddie,” he said. “August shows some unleashing of pent-up demand before the credit crisis accelerated in September.”

He cautioned that the sampling size for pending home sales is smaller than the track on existing-home sales, so there is more volatility in the forward-looking series. “We need to see just how much of this gain holds up,” Yun said.

NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said despite all the turmoil in world financial markets, home mortgages are available. “Mortgages have been harder to find, and availability and terms vary depending on credit score and location, but Realtors® can help buyers find reputable lenders while helping them navigate the transaction process,” he said. “The recently enacted economic stimulus package should help housing by gradually freeing the flow of credit.”

Yun now expects growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to contract for two consecutive quarters, in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2009, before expanding in latter part of 2009 as the housing market begins a steady improvement.

Looking at middle-ground assumptions, existing-home sales are forecast at 5.04 million this year and 5.41 million in 2009. Following national declines of 5 to 8 percent in 2008, home prices are projected to increase 2 to 3 percent next year.

New-home sales should total around 503,000 this year and 471,000 in 2009. Housing starts, including multifamily units, are likely to fall 28.2 percent to 973,000 units this year, and come in around 843,000 in 2009 as builders continue to clear the accumulation in inventory.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably average 6.1 percent in the fourth quarter and rise gradually to 6.6 percent by the end of 2009. NAR’s housing affordability index is expected to average 18 percentage points higher this year than in 2007.

The unemployment rate is projected to average 6.4 percent in the fourth quarter and then average 6.6 percent in 2009. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is estimated at 4.0 percent for 2008 and 2.0 percent next year. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is forecast to grow 1.7 percent this year and 1.0 percent in 2009.

Reprinted from National Realty News:
http://nationalrealtynews.com/content/templates/standard.aspx?articleid=1278&zoneid=1

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Home Sales Up, Prices Down in South Florida

Realtors: August home sales up, prices down in South Florida
Reprinted from The Miami Herald
BY Matthew Haggmann

South Florida home sales jumped in August amid signs that lower prices are drawing buyers back into the region's long-struggling housing market.

Sales of existing single-family homes in Miami-Dade County increased 22 percent and Broward County sales increased 12 percent compared to the same period a year ago, according to numbers released Wednesday by the Florida Association of Realtors.

Condominium sales were up 13 percent in Miami-Dade, while condo activity in Broward for the month was even compared to August 2007.

A big reason for increased sales appears to be healthy price drops. Prices were at least 20 percent lower in August than a year ago for single-family homes and condos in both Miami-Dade and Broward counties.

The median price for a Miami-Dade single-family home was $276,000 in August, amounting to a 30 percent drop from last year. For Broward single-family homes, the median price was $269,800, down 27 percent.

The median condo price in Miami-Dade was $210,400; it was $133,300 in Broward.

The outsized inventory of residences for sale also declined in August. Market watchers say the number of homes on the market must shrink significantly -- creating a better balance between buyers and sellers -- before prices start rising again.

The South Florida results were in contrast to the rest of the country.

Nationally, sales of existing U.S. homes fell by 2.2 percent in August, though the number of unsold homes on the market also dropped sharply from the previous month's record high.

The National Association of Realtors said sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.91 million units, from an upwardly revised pace of 5.02 million in July. Sales had been expected to fall by 1.6 percent, according to economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR.

The median price of an existing home dropped to $203,100 from $224,400 a year ago. For single-family houses, the median price dropped 9.7 percent, the biggest decline since records began in 1968.

Resales account for about 90 percent of the market, while purchases of new homes make up the rest. Sales of existing homes are compiled from contract closings and may reflect contracts signed one or two months earlier.

There were 4.2 million unsold homes on the market, a 7 percent drop from the record set in July. It was the steepest drop in inventory since December 2006.

Reprinted from the Miami Herald: http://www.miamiherald.com/business/real-estate/story/699288.html

What the Government Takeover of Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Means to the Housing Industry

What the Government Takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Means to Housing Industry
Reprinted from the National Association of Realtors

In short-term, home sales should improve as mortgage rates fall

Washington, D.C. (September 8, 2008)-The federal government's takeover of secondary mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should cause a drop in mortgage rates in the short term that benefits home buyers, but the long-term outlook is too early to call. NAR fully supports the action of the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

The federal government had no choice. The capital situation of the two companies was not enough to handle the fallout from rising mortgage defaults in the near future. In addition, investors who purchase Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt have lost confidence in the two.

In a statement, NAR commended the Treasury's action, announced yesterday, to bring stability and continued liquidity to the mortgage market.

"The plan will help restore confidence in the secondary mortgage market," said NAR President Richard F. Gaylord.

"We appreciate the steps taken to calm the market, make mortgages more widely available and protect taxpayers. We look forward to working with the administration and Congress to ensure the continued vibrancy of the secondary mortgage market.

Summary of what the Treasury actually did and what it means

• In the takeover, Treasury placed the GSEs into a conservatorship-similar to a Chapter 11 bankruptcy- which fully protects taxpayers from conflicts of interest between taxpayers and shareholders or current management.


• The federal government is authorized to take up to an 80 percent stake in the companies, will review their financial condition quarterly, and inject money into the operations as needed. That means the market for GSE securities will be treated more like Treasury obligations, which should push mortgage interest rates down. That in turn, is expected to speed up home sales and help stabilize home prices.


• The GSEs will be allowed to increase their mortgage funding over the next year and a half to help stabilize markets. Starting in 2010, the plan calls for them to reduce their portfolios.


• The heads of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been relieved of their duties. Treasury selected Herbert Allison, former Merrill Lynch vice chairman, to lead Fannie Mae, and David Moffett, former U.S. Bancorp CFO, to guide Freddie Mac.

Talking Points

• NAR, as the leading advocate for homeownership and housing issues, has closely monitored the market turmoil affecting the stock and debts of the two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Their mission is crucial to the economy to make fair and affordable mortgages available to home owners and home buyers. That mission must not be interrupted.
  
• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play a vital role in the U.S. economy by making fair and affordable mortgage loans available for home buyers and owners. That must not be interrupted. Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. and James B.Lockhart III, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency that regulates Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have issued strong statements assuring the public that credit will continue to flow over the next 12 to 18 months.


• Short term, the takeover will result in government money driving down interest rates, which is expected to spur an increase in home sales.


• Long term, the action will lead to a major reorganization of the two GSEs as privately owned models. The brunt of that work will fall to the new administration and new Congress. NAR will help shape that process and the association is already working on a plan to do that.


• The action taking by Treasury and the FHFA, which regulates GSEs, makes clear the government will not let the deteriorating conditions of the GSEs disrupt the flow of capital to the housing sector, or harm the national and international financial system.


• The GSEs guarantee more than 40 percent of the nation's mortgages and own or guarantee more than $5 trillion in mortgages. Since the credit crunch began in August 2007, the private sector mortgage securitization market has virtually disappeared and the market share of the GSEs has jumped to about 70 percent.


• NAR will continue to follow events closely and develop recommendations on the future of the GSEs' mission to ensure there will be a robust secondary mortgage market in all markets.

Florida Condo Prices Hit Bottom?

Real Estate Vultures Think Florida Condo Prices Have Hit Bottom
Reprinted from Florida Association of Realtors

MIAMI – Sept. 4, 2008 – Trying to time the real estate market and planning to buy once it hits bottom? Get your checkbook.

Condo Vultures LLC owner Peter Zalewski believes the recent purchase of 120 condominiums in Miami’s 50 Biscayne Blvd. tower, by the Philadelphia-based private equity firm Lubert-Adler Partners LP and Related Group of Florida, will usher in a wave of investors looking to snap up distressed properties in the region.

Jack McCabe of McCabe Research & Consulting LLC believes these vulture buyers are an indication that the housing market has bottomed out, and he believes ongoing foreclosure sales could extend the bottom for a few years. He says that vulture investors plan to spend $30 billion or more on distressed housing in the Sunshine State.

However, Lewis Goodkin of Goodkin Consulting Group says prices need to be reduced to about 50 cents on the dollar to attract investors.

Downtown Miami will see the opening of 11,551 condos this year, which is a five-year supply, according to MetroStudy regional director Brad Hunter.

Source: Bloomberg (09/04/08) Ivry, Bob
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